[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 12 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 11 09:30:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 09/2307UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.7 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 0627UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with Active Region 1520
(S17E21) producing an M1.7 level flare at 0514UT and an M 2.1
level flare at 0627UT. C-class flares were also produced in AR
1521 (S22E09) and 1519 (S16E01). This conglomerate of sunspot
groups all now close to solar central meridian maintains potential
for further M- to X-class flares. No significant CME activity
was observed over the period. Solar wind speed showed a minor
upward trend from 400 to 500 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF maintained southward bias of -10nT until 08UT after
which it trended gradually positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Darwin 7 23121222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 7 2-------
Norfolk Island 5 22221121
Camden 6 22232111
Canberra 4 22121110
Hobart 6 22232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 2-------
Casey 12 332-----
Mawson 30 543-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 38 4434 6545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 12 Unsettled
12 Jul 7 Quiet
13 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Isolated Unsettled to Active intervals were observed
at high latitudes early in the UT day due to sustained negative
IMF Bz. High latitude conditions declined to Quiet later in the
day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days,
with the chance of isolated Unsettled periods. Solar wind speed
may remain mildly elevated due to two narrow coronal holes now
in geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
No data after 17UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20%
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20%
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values / depressed 10
to 20 %
COMMENT: Widespread depressions of 20-30% observed throughout
the region local night. Expect mostly normal propagation conditions
next three days with the chance of isolated short-wave fadeout
events. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 45100 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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