[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 12 issued 2342 UT on 09 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 10 09:42:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2307UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to mostly Low levels on Jul
09 with an M1 level flare observed at 2305UT. A filament eruption
was observed in the SW quadrant around 0930UT. A number of SW
directed CME's were observed over the first half of the UT day,
none of these are expected to be geoeffective. A weak proton
event was observed at geosynchronous orbit from 0130 to 1440
UT. A weak shock in the solar wind was observed at 0230UT. These
events are possibly due to arrival of the CME observed 04 July.
Solar wind speed was mostly steady at around 400 km/s and the
Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field sustained southward
bias to -10nT over the UT day. Large active region 1520 (S15E31)
has shown some growth over the period but has remained flare-quiet.
There remains the potential for M- to X-class flare activity
over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 32344323
Darwin 16 32244333
Townsville 21 43344334
Learmonth 22 33255333
Norfolk Island 14 33333323
Camden 17 32335323
Canberra 13 32234323
Hobart 20 32345423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 59 3446765-
Casey 13 33224332
Mawson 54 76534364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 11 2223 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 18 Active
11 Jul 12 Unsettled
12 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 8 July and
is current for 9-10 Jul. The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet
at low latitudes with Unsettled periods 10-13UT. Conditions at
mid latitudes were Unsettled with Active to brief minor storm
intervals 10-15UT. Conditions at high latitudes were Unsettled
to Active with Minor to Major Storm periods. Expect possible
disturbed periods day one of the forecast period due to shock
arrival from the solar events of 06 July. Conditions should decline
to Quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Spread-F at Hobart local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionosphere over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values.
11 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values.
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 8 July
and is current for 9-10 Jul (SWFs). Expect mostly normal propagation
conditions next three days with the chance of isolated short-wave
fadeout events. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 31800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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