[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 12 issued 2332 UT on 08 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 9 09:32:02 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0546UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0953UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1210UT possible lower European
M6.9 1632UT probable lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: The four M flares originated from region 1515 (S17 W76).
This region appears to be simplifying but remains capable of
energetic flares. The large region 1520 (S15 E42) is also capable
of large flares. LASCO and STEREO images show a number of weak
CMEs on 8 Jul. A halo CME appears after ~1530 UT. ACE data show
the north-south component of the IMF becoming increasingly disturbed
on 8 Jul ranging between +10 and -9 nT. The field has been southward
since ~21 UT. The wind speed ranged between ~390 to 490 km/s.
The solar wind is expected to be moderately disturbed over the
forecast period due to CME effects; the CME associated with the
X flare on 6 Jul is expected to arrive late 9 or 10 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 22232113
Darwin 9 23232123
Townsville 14 23343233
Learmonth 10 33232113
Norfolk Island 7 22232013
Camden 8 22232113
Canberra 5 12231002
Hobart 6 12232012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 02131001
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 11 24223223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3212 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 15 Unsettled to active
10 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
11 Jul 12 Mostly unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods likely mostly 9 and 10 Jul due
to CME effects. The field should begin to settle on 11 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
20-35% 11-14, 16-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions of
15-25% 03-05, 10-13, 20, 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-30%
depressions 06-19 UT at Darwin and 01-02, 09-10 and
16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 20% mostly at night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
10 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Spread F observed during night at most stations,
probably degrading communication paths. IPS HF Communications
Warning 27 was issued on 8 July and is current for 9-10 Jul
(SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 43000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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