[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 12 issued 2329 UT on 07 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 8 09:29:26 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2/-- 0315UT possible lower East Asia/Aust.
M1.0/-- 0828UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.6/-- 1103UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Only three, low level M-class flares; two from region
1515 (S17 W63) and the other from new region 1520 (S15 E54).
Region 1515 retains its size and magnetic complexity while region
1520 is also a large, magnetically complex group. The CME at
06/~1254 UT (6 Jul report) is unlikely to be geo-effective while
most of the CME material associated with the 06/2308 UT X1.1 flare
from region 1515 appears to have been directed to the south and
west. The ACE data show the solar wind decreasing from about 500 to
430 km/s with the north-south IMF component ranging between +/-5 nT.
The solar wind is expected to be moderately disturbed on 8 Jul due
to the 4 Jul CME, while any effects from the CME associated with the
X flare are expected on 9 Jul. A proton event occurred in association
with the X flare beginning 7 Jul/~04 UT and ending ~20 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 22210121
Townsville 13 33332233
Learmonth 6 22231112
Norfolk Island 5 22221012
Camden 4 22221011
Canberra 2 11120000
Hobart 4 22221001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 21131001
Casey 5 22311111
Mawson 16 23432215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 70 (Active)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 2321 2345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 25 Unsettled to active
09 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
10 Jul 18 Quiet to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 5 July and
is current for 6-8 Jul. Isolated minor storm levels possible
8 Jul. Isolated active levels still possible 9 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-55% 03-12 UT. Depressed 20-30% 01,
14-17, 22-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at
other times. Sporadic E 16-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-30% depressions
10-15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-35% depressions
00-02, 09-16, 19-21 UT at Darwin and 15-20%
depressions 01-02, 09-12, 15, 23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-30% depressions
11-14 UT at Perth and Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 5 July
and is current for 6-8 Jul (SWFs). Spread F observed during night
at most stations probably degrading communication paths. Occasional
depressions to 25% possible at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 69800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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