[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 7 09:29:29 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.9    0140UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0252UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    0824UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.8    1029UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.2    1330UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1856UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  X1.1    2308UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 158/112

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: The six, low level M-class flares were all from region 
1515 (S18 W50), the origin of the X flare is unknown at this 
time. Region 1515 is still growing in size. Available STEREO 
images indicate possible impact from a CME observed ~1254 UT; 
further images and analysis are required. ACE data show the north-south 
IMF ranging between -10 and +9 nT, with wind speed 400-500 km/s. 
The solar wind is expected to become disturbed 7 Jul due to the 
effects of the CMEs on 3 and 4 Jul mentioned in the 4 Jul report.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22222243
      Darwin              11   23222333
      Townsville          16   33333343
      Learmonth           10   22222243
      Norfolk Island       8   22122233
      Camden              11   23122243
      Canberra             6   12112232
      Hobart               9   12112243    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    10   0201424-
      Casey               15   3322225-
      Mawson              38   5532227-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   2213 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    18    Quiet to active
08 Jul    25    Unsettled to active
09 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 5 July and 
is current for 6-8 Jul. Activity is likely to increase 7 Jul 
due to CMEs effects. Isolated minor storm levels possible on 
7 and 8 Jul. Activity should begin subsiding 9 Jul but active 
levels still possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Jul    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-30%
      00, 13-20, 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 15-25%
       01-02, 13-14 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 25-35% depressions
      10, 13-15, 17-19 UT at Darwin and 20-25% depressions
      08-09, 14 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT:  Occasional depressions to 20% possible at all
latitudes. IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
5 July and is current for 6-8 Jul (SWFs).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    28000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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