[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 12 issued 2328 UT on 05 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 6 09:28:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.6 04/2209UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.2 04/2355UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0038UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 0110UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0131UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.2 0242UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.7 0336UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0659UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1048UT possible lower European
M6.2 1144UT probable lower European
M1.2 1321UT possible lower European
M1.6 2014UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.5 2142UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Numerous M-class flares with the main contributor being
region 1515 (S17 W37) with 1519 (S14 E62) also producing one
low level M flare. Region 1515 remains an Fkc group and has shown
further growth while other regions seem stable. CMEs were associated
with some of the region 1515 flares but available images indicate
all were directed southwards. ACE data show the solar wind speed
declining from 530 to ~460 km/s. The north-south IMF component
was mainly northward on 5 Jul ranging between +5/-4 nT until
~11 UT. Thereafter, activity increased with some brief excursions
to -8 nT but mostly north to +10 nT. The CMEs reported yesterday
as expected to be geo-effective, are now considered likely to
impact late on 7 or early 8 Jul. Before this, the solar wind
may be mildly disturbed at times due to effects from the recent
CME activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with active periods 09-15 UT.
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22133322
Darwin 11 22234322
Townsville 19 33344433
Learmonth 13 22244322
Norfolk Island 8 12133222
Camden 8 22133212
Canberra 7 31033211
Hobart 7 -2133211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 111110--
Casey 10 3323311-
Mawson 12 4323321-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 3323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
07 Jul 15 Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm periods
possible late.
08 Jul 25 Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods
likely.
COMMENT: Activity possibly beginning late 7 Jul due to CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
depressions 00, 12-20, 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-25%
depressions 00-06, 13-15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
depressions 05-06, 11-18 UT at Darwin. Depressions
of 15-20%, 00, 03-07, 12-16 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
20%, mostly 01-09, 14-17 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 20% possible at all
latitudes. IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
5 July and is current for 6-8 Jul (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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