[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 12 issued 2349 UT on 13 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 14 09:49:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to Quiet level over the past
24 hours with only minor C-class flares observed from Active
Regions 1520 (S16W21) and 1521 (S21W33). These regions maintain
potential for M- to X-class activity. A N-directed CME was observed
in LASCO C3 imagery after 04UT. STEREO imagery indicates a trajectory
well N of the ecliptic. Solar wind speed declined slightly from
400 to 350 km/s over the period and the Bz component of the IMF
was mostly neutral. Moderate solar wind disturbance is predicted
sometime after 12UT on Jul 14 with an anticipated impact from
the Jul 12 CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 9 23222223
Learmonth 2 21100010
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 0000----
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 110--00-
Casey 3 121--11-
Mawson 1 2110000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3444 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 30 Active to Minor Storm
15 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 13 July and
is current for 14-15 Jul. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed
over the past 24 hours and the regional geomagnetic field remained
Quiet at all latitudes. Expect Quiet conditions for the first
half of the UT day 14 Jul. A CME impact from the X1 level flare
of Jul 12 is anticipated sometime after 12 UT on Jul 14. Geomagnetic
disturbance reaching the G1 ( minor storm) level is predicted
with possible major storm periods at higher latitudes days one
and two. Conditions should decline to Quiet day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% 07-210UT.
Depressed by 30% 18-22UT. Sporadic-E observed
19-20UT with depressions to 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed to 30% 11-13, 17UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day
with occasional enhancements to 30%.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Spread-F 12-20UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
15 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%.
16 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%.
COMMENT: Propagation conditions mostly normal Equatorial/Aus
regions with mild night-time MUF depressions. Continuing poor
ionospheric support Antarctic region. Chance of isolated short-wave
fadeout events. Possible significant disturbance days one and
two due to CME impact from the X-class flare observed late on
Jul 12.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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