[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 12 issued 2335 UT on 02 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 3 09:35:30 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0035UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.6 1052UT possible lower European
M3.8 2007UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Numerous C flares with an M1.1 flare from region 1513
(N16 W08) at 0035 UT, and an M5.6 (1052 UT) and M3.8 (2007 UT)
from region 1515 (S17 E04). Region 1513 is classified as Dso
while 1515 is an Ekc group; both showed growth over the period.
A CME associated with region 1512 (S16 W56) was observed at ~0718
UT while a far side halo event was observed at ~0906 UT. A CME
associated with region 1515 was observed at ~1518 UT. None of
the events are expected to be geo-effective. ACE solar wind data
show the wind speed ranging between 600-700 km/s due to the continued
effects of the coronal hole. Wind speed should remain elevated
on 3 Jul and begin to subside 4 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 33324332
Darwin 12 33323322
Townsville 7 2-------
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 11 33323321
Camden 15 33334332
Canberra 15 33------
Hobart 13 23324332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey 21 43------
Mawson 80 66------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 96 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23 5533 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
04 Jul 8 Unsettled
05 Jul 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods likely at high latitudes
3 and 4 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 20-35% enhanced with near predicted monthly values
00-04, 12-14 UT. Depressions 20-35% 20-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly 15-25% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values until 09 UT, then depressed
15-30% at Darwin. Mostly near predicted monthly values at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions
to 25%. Depressions to 35% at Hobart and Christchurch from
10 UT onwards.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere. Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
04 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
05 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 2 July
and is current for 3-5 Jul (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 646 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 195000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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