[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 12 issued 2327 UT on 01 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 2 09:27:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/SB 1918UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with an M2 flare
from region 1513(N17E17) and several C flares from other regions.
The solar wind speed remains elevated at between 600-700 km/s
due to a coronal hole high speed stream with the IMF Bz component
fluctuating between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Moderate levels for the next few days. The coronal hole high
speed wind stream is expected to remain in effect for another
1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Unsettled with Active periods
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Darwin 13 33333232
Townsville 17 34333---
Learmonth 17 33433---
Norfolk Island 10 33332221
Camden 12 33333222
Canberra 12 3333321-
Hobart 14 33343231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 28 34454---
Casey 15 4333332-
Mawson 32 4655312-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 3344 4454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jul 12 Unsettled
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Unsettled with
isolated Active periods. Current conditions are expected to persist
for the next 1-2 days due to a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Conditions should return to mostly Quiet levels
by the 4th of July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some depressed periods in northern Australia and equatorial regions.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values with some
mildly depressed periods for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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