[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 12 issued 2328 UT on 03 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 4 09:28:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 02/2356UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Region 1515 (S17 W09) produced an M2.0 at 02/2356 UT
and numerous C flares. The region has shown renewed growth and
is classified as Fkc. Region 1513 (N16 W21) also produced two
large C flares and is largely stable. The background x-ray flux
is high at C-class levels. SOHO/STEREO/SDO images show a number
of CMEs associated with 1515, however, none are expected to be
strongly geo-effective with material being ejected southwards.
ACE data show the solar wind speed declining to ~530 km/s while
the north-south IMF component ranged between +/-4 nT. The solar
wind is expected to continue settling; there may be occasional
weak disturbances due to the current CME activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to unsettled.
Increased activity 09-12 UT.
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 22232311
Darwin 9 23232311
Townsville 14 33333323
Learmonth 9 32232311
Norfolk Island 6 22132210
Camden 9 22242301
Canberra 5 22132200
Hobart 8 22142310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 2215----
Casey 15 3333----
Mawson 20 34534410
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4542 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
06 Jul 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
09-15, 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
12-13, 15-16, 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 04-07,
10-11, 16-18 and 21 UT at Darwin
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed during local
day. Depressed to 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
05 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 2 July
and is current for 3-5 Jul (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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