[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 12 issued 2348 UT on 29 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 30 10:48:44 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **  ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: The CME observed in association with the X1-flare of 
27 January is primarily directed towards the west but may have 
a very glancing impact at Earth during 30 January. Only minor 
enhancements in solar wind velocity and density are expected 
with this CME. Solar wind speeds continued to decline as the 
influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream slowly 
abates. The high energy proton flux (10 MeV) remained above event 
level thresholds during 29 January and is expected to return 
to below event levels during 30 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22120212
      Darwin               6   22221212
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            5   22120212
      Norfolk Island       3   12110111
      Camden               4   22120111
      Canberra             3   12110112
      Hobart               5   22221211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   23121111
      Casey               13   34422222
      Mawson              22   33321364
      Davis               21   3443----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1110 0022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    12    Mostly Unsettled, with the chance of isolated 
                Active periods and Minor Storm periods at high 
                latitudes.
31 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region 
with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at some 
Antarctic stations. A slight increase in geomagnetic activity 
is possible during the UT day of 30 January with the anticipated 
glancing impact of a CME.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to good. HF conditions 
are expected to be mostly normal to good for the next few days 
with isolated degraded periods possible at times for 30 January 
with the anticipated slight increase in geomagnetic activity. 
High latitude regions were significantly degraded due to a PCA 
event that is expected to abate during the latter half of the 
UT day of 30 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values at some stations,
      otherwise a Proton event is causing increased absorption.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
31 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible 
at times for 30 January with the anticipated slight increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Antarctic region MUFs were significantly 
degraded due to a PCA event that is expected to abate during 
the latter half of the UT day of 30 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 291 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    74700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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