[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 12 issued 2352 UT on 28 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 29 10:52:51 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Further analysis of more recent SOHO and STEREO satellite 
imagery suggests that CME activity observed in association with 
the X1-flare of 27 January is primarily directed towards the 
west but may have a very glancing impact at Earth late on 30 
January into 31 January. Only minor enhancements in solar wind 
velocity and density are expected with this CME. Solar wind parameters 
suggest the Earth is still under the influence of a high speed 
coronal hole solar wind stream which is slowly abating. The high 
energy proton flux (10 MeV) remained above event level thresholds 
during 28 January and is expected to remain above event levels 
for 29 January.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212112
      Darwin               6   22212122
      Townsville           8   23222123
      Learmonth            6   22222122
      Norfolk Island       4   22211012
      Camden               4   12212012
      Canberra             4   12212012
      Hobart               5   22212112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   11112012
      Casey               19   35532123
      Mawson              24   34212256
      Davis               16   24432333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1232 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     6    Quiet
30 Jan    12    Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor storm 
                levels late in the UT day.
31 Jan    15    Mostly Unsettled with the chance of Active and 
                isolated Minor storm periods.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the Australian 
region with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at 
some Antarctic stations. An mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
is possible late in the UT day of 30 January and into 31 January 
with the glancing impact of a CME.


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor(PCA)      
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 23/01, Ended at 1100UT 27/01
 and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near normal with some slightly 
degraded conditions at times at some locations. HF conditions 
are expected to be mostly near normal for the next few days with 
slightly degraded conditions at times for 31 January with anticipated 
mild increases in geomagnetic activity. High latitude regions 
are significantly degraded due to a PCA event that is expected 
to continue for at least the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values at some stations,
      otherwise a Proton event is causing increased absorption.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
some depressions up to 15% at times at some locations. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next 
few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible at times 
for 31 January with anticipated mild increases in geomagnetic 
activity. Antarctic region MUFs are significantly degraded due 
to a PCA event that is expected to continue for at least the 
next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    90200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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