[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 12 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 28 10:31:21 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN   ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.8    1837UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: An X1-flare was observed at 1837UT from solar region 
1402 on the west limb. This flare was associated with Type II 
and IV radio sweeps, an increase in high energy proton flux, 
and a CME. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests 
that CME activity observed in association with this flare is 
primarily directed towards the west and is not expected to be 
geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low 
levels for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class 
flares during 28 January as solar region 1402 rotates around 
the limb. Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth is presently 
under the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. 
The high energy proton flux briefly return to below event levels 
during 27 January before again rising above threshold levels 
due to an increase in high energy proton flux associated with 
the X1-flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           8   23232221
      Learmonth            7   22223211
      Norfolk Island       6   22222121
      Camden               6   12322211
      Canberra             6   12223201
      Hobart               8   12333211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    10   02434210
      Casey               32   46634322
      Mawson              15   44324221
      Davis               16   34433322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2012 2311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     6    Quiet
30 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the Australian 
region with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at 
Antarctic stations. Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the 
next few days with some isolated Unsettled and Active periods 
possible at times due a coronal hole high speed stream.


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 23/01, Ended at 1100UT 27/01
 and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions 
are expected to be mostly near normal for the next few days with 
slightly degraded periods at times for 28 January. Antarctic 
regions returned to mostly normal conditions during 27 January 
as the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsided, however, a 
further PCA event is now in progress due to the X1-flare observed 
at 1837UT. This PCA event is expected to continue for at least 
the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jan    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
29 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible at 
times for 28 January. Antarctic region MUFs briefly returned 
to mostly near predicted monthly values during 27 January as 
the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsided, however, a further 
PCA event is now in progress due to the X1-flare observed at 
1837UT. This PCA event is expected to continue for at least the 
next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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