[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 12 issued 2345 UT on 26 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 10:45:02 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: ** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels
for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class flares
during 27 January as solar region 1402 rotates off the visible
disk. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests
that CME activity observed during 26 January is mostly northward
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds
are expected to increase mildly during 27-28 January as a coronal
hole rotates into a geoeffective position. The high energy proton
flux is expected to return to below event levels during 27 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222312
Darwin 7 22222312
Townsville 9 22232322
Learmonth 7 22122322
Norfolk Island 5 -1221212
Camden 7 22222312
Canberra 6 21122312
Hobart 9 22232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 21232322
Casey 22 44543323
Mawson 22 32543344
Davis 18 33444332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 3425 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods
28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled for
the Australian region with some Active and Minor Storm periods
observed at Antarctic stations. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
are expected for the next few days with some isolated Active
periods during 27 January due a coronal hole high speed stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were slightly degraded at times during
26 January, otherwise HF conditions were mostly Normal. HF conditions
ere expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days, with
slightly degraded conditions possible at times. High latitude
HF conditions should return to mostly Normal-Fair during 27 January
as the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsides.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
29 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 26 January
and is current for 26-28 Jan MUFs were depressed up to 15% at
times during local daytime hours, otherwise MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to depressed up to 15% at times
for the next few days. Antarctic region MUFs should return to
mostly near predicted monthly values during 27 January as the
Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsides.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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