[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 12 issued 2345 UT on 26 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 10:45:02 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: ** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN  ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels 
for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class flares 
during 27 January as solar region 1402 rotates off the visible 
disk. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests 
that CME activity observed during 26 January is mostly northward 
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to increase mildly during 27-28 January as a coronal 
hole rotates into a geoeffective position. The high energy proton 
flux is expected to return to below event levels during 27 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222312
      Darwin               7   22222312
      Townsville           9   22232322
      Learmonth            7   22122322
      Norfolk Island       5   -1221212
      Camden               7   22222312
      Canberra             6   21122312
      Hobart               9   22232322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   21232322
      Casey               22   44543323
      Mawson              22   32543344
      Davis               18   33444332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   3425 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan    12    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active 
                periods
28 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled for 
the Australian region with some Active and Minor Storm periods 
observed at Antarctic stations. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels 
are expected for the next few days with some isolated Active 
periods during 27 January due a coronal hole high speed stream.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were slightly degraded at times during 
26 January, otherwise HF conditions were mostly Normal. HF conditions 
ere expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days, with 
slightly degraded conditions possible at times. High latitude 
HF conditions should return to mostly Normal-Fair during 27 January 
as the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsides.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
28 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
29 Jan    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 26 January 
and is current for 26-28 Jan MUFs were depressed up to 15% at 
times during local daytime hours, otherwise MUFs were mostly 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to depressed up to 15% at times 
for the next few days. Antarctic region MUFs should return to 
mostly near predicted monthly values during 27 January as the 
Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsides.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 585 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   295000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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