[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 12 issued 2350 UT on 25 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 26 10:50:59 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **  ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels 
for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class flares 
as solar regions 1401 and 1402 rotate off the visible disk. A 
CME observed in both SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery around 
00UT on 25 January appears westward directed and is not expected 
to be geoeffective. ACE satellite data shows excursions of the 
IMF magnetic field down to -10nT for a period of a couple of 
hours between 07-10UT. Solar wind declined slowly from approximately 
650 km/s over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to increase during 27-28 January as a coronal hole rotates into 
a geoeffective position. The high energy proton flux is expected 
to remain above event levels during 26 January.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23433212
      Darwin              10   33332212
      Townsville          14   23443222
      Learmonth           14   33343223
      Norfolk Island       9   23332112
      Camden              12   23433212
      Canberra            11   23433112
      Hobart              14   33443212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    27   34564321
      Casey               63   57843323
      Mawson              29   44554334
      Davis               35   44654353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            53   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             24   4222 2564     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan    12    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active 
                periods
28 Jan    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active 
                periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled with 
an isolated Active period for 06-09UT for the Australian region. 
Storm levels were observed at Antarctic stations. The increased 
levels of geomagnetic activity are mostly likely the result of 
the period of sustained southward IMF observed during 07-10UT 
on 25 January. Mostly Quiet levels are expected for 26 January. 
A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to increase geomagnetic 
activity to isolated Active periods during 27-28 January.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Poor-normal    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed 15-30% at times for mid-high 
latitude regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values to depressed 10-20% at times for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jan    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed 15-30% at times for central 
and southern Aus/NZ regions during local daytime hours, otherwise 
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20% 
at times for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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