[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 12 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 25 10:30:53 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the 24th of January with 
several small C class flares from regions 1401(N16W53) and 1402(N29W48), 
the largest being C2.5. The solar wind monitor onboard the SOHO 
spacecraft observed a shock in the solar wind around 14UT. The 
ACE spacecraft magnetometer recorded that at the time of the 
shock the IMF Bz component went positive to around 20 nT, with 
a later excursion to around -20nt for a brief period. This has 
settled back to around +/- 5nt at time of writing. The high energy 
proton flux remains high and is expected to remain at elevated 
levels for the next 1-2 days. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some possibility of 
further M class activity from region 1402. The solar wind conditions 
are expected to be around normal, with some increase in speed 
possible on day 3 of this forecast due to a coronal hole high 
speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   33223543
      Darwin              17   32223543
      Townsville          20   33224543
      Learmonth           24   32223653
      Norfolk Island      17   32123543
      Camden              17   23223543
      Canberra            17   23223543
      Hobart              16   33223443    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    25   33232563
      Casey               40   45543654
      Mawson              36   55323564
      Davis               29   44434553

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   5321 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 23 January and 
is current for 24-26. Jan Conditions were Quiet in the Australian 
region until around 1504UT when IPS magnetometer data recorded a weak 
(38nT) impulse. In the following hours, Minor Storm conditions were observed 
across the continent. Antarctica had been at Minor Storm levels 
prior to this time and recorded isolated Major Storm levels afterwards. 
This is in response to a shock in the solar wind observed around 
14UT due to a CME from the M8 flare observed on the 23rd of January. 
Active conditions with possible isolated Minor Storm levels are 
expected for the first part of the 25th, reducing to Unsettled 
towards the later part of the day and into the 26th. A coronal 
hole high speed stream expected around the 27th is expected to 
maintain Unsettled conditions into day 3 of the forecast.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor

COMMENT: HF conditions were generally good until around 15UT 
when geomagnetic storm effects depressed the MUFs by around 20%. 
Depression are expected to continue into the first day of the 
forecast, improving somewhat over days 2 and 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values until 15UT,
      Depressed by 20% afterwards.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during until 15UT,
      Near predicted monthly values afterwards.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jan    60    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 24 January 
and is current for 24-26 Jan MUFs were generally around predicted 
monthly values until around 15UT when geomagnetic storm effects 
depressed the MUFs by around 20%. Depressions are expected to 
continue into the first day of the forecast, improving somewhat 
over days 2 and 3.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    96800 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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