[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 12 issued 2355 UT on 23 Jan 2012

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 24 10:55:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0322UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M8.7    0400UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was reached High levels during 23 January. 
Solar region 1402 produced an M8.7 flare at 0359UT on 23 January 
with associated radio bursts. An increase in proton flux at
geosynchronous 
orbit was also observed in association with this flare. Analysis 
of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that although the 
majority of the CME associated with this flare is northward directed, 
a substantial component is in the ecliptic plane and earthward 
directed. The CME is anticipated to impact Earth during the latter 
half of the UT day of 24 January. Significant increases in solar 
wind speed are expected with the impact of this CME. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low during 24 January with the small possibility 
of further M-class flare activity. 





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   43221112
      Darwin               9   43222112
      Townsville          12   44222222
      Learmonth           11   52222112
      Norfolk_Island       6   32211112
      Camden              11   53221111
      Canberra            10   53211101
      Hobart              11   53221112
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     9   44310001
      Casey               14   43432222
      Mawson              22   45512134
      Davis               18   34523233
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             24   1044 5454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan    50    Storm Levels 
25 Jan    50    Storm Levels 
26 Jan    20    Active 

COMMENT: Some minor storm periods were observed at the start 
of the UT day of 23 January returning to mostly unsettled to 
Quiet conditions by the end of the day. Major to Severe storm 
periods are expected in the latter half of the UT day of 24 January 
and into 25 January due to the anticipated arrival of a CME. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Fair-poor      Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 0545UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
25 Jan      Poor           Poor           Poor
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
25 Jan    40    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
26 Jan    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Significant depressions were observed during 23 January 
as the result of enhanced geomagnetic activity observed during 
22-23 January. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal 
during the first half of the UT day of 24 January, becoming
significantly 
degraded in the latter half of the UT day and into the UT day 
of 25 January due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list