[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 12 issued 2336 UT on 22 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:36:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours.
C-class flares were observed from regions 1401(N16W27) and
1402(N29W24). The largest flare for this period was a C7.1
flare that started at 0232UT, peaked at 0257UT. A shock in
the solar wind, possibly due to the arrival of the halo CME
of 19 January was observed at 0514UT. Solar wind speed stayed
around 320 km/s until the arrival of the shock and then suddenly
increased to 400 km/s and stayed close to this value for the
remaining parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +/-10nT for most parts of the day today, but
it showed larger variations (between approx. +/-20nT) for a
few hours after the arrival of the shock. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class
activity may be observed during this period. Previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1389 is due for return to the south-east limb
around 23 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 27 13545353
Darwin 25 23545343
Townsville 34 23556353
Learmonth 37 23556454
Norfolk Island 24 13545343
Camden 30 13555353
Canberra 27 13545353
Hobart 26 13544453
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 29 01355554
Casey 35 23665334
Mawson 32 22544555
Davis 40 33666343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Minor
Storm levels today. The rise in geomagnetic activity seems to
be due to the arrival of the 19 January CME. Quiet to Unsettled
levels of activity with the possibility of Active periods may
be expected for 23 January. Mostly Quiet levels of activity may
be expected for the following two days thereafter. In the IPS
magnetometer data for 22 Jan, a weak (29nT) impulse
was observed at 0612UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitude
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations
in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be observed on mid
and high latitude locations on 23 January. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected for most locations on 24 and
25 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 80 About 15% below predicted monthly values
24 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitude
locations today. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
may be possible on 23 January due to continued expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
Mostly normal conditions may be expected for 24 and 25 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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