[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 12 issued 2336 UT on 22 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:36:31 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours. 
C-class flares were observed from regions 1401(N16W27) and
1402(N29W24). The largest flare for this period was a C7.1 
flare that started at 0232UT, peaked at 0257UT. A shock in 
the solar wind, possibly due to the arrival of the halo CME 
of 19 January was observed at 0514UT. Solar wind speed stayed 
around 320 km/s until the arrival of the shock and then suddenly 
increased to 400 km/s and stayed close to this value for the 
remaining parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF 
varied between +/-10nT for most parts of the day today, but 
it showed larger variations (between approx. +/-20nT) for a 
few hours after the arrival of the shock. Low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class 
activity may be observed during this period. Previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1389 is due for return to the south-east limb 
around 23 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      27   13545353
      Darwin              25   23545343
      Townsville          34   23556353
      Learmonth           37   23556454
      Norfolk Island      24   13545343
      Camden              30   13555353
      Canberra            27   13545353
      Hobart              26   13544453    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    29   01355554
      Casey               35   23665334
      Mawson              32   22544555
      Davis               40   33666343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1212 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Minor 
Storm levels today. The rise in geomagnetic activity seems to 
be due to the arrival of the 19 January CME. Quiet to Unsettled 
levels of activity with the possibility of Active periods may 
be expected for 23 January. Mostly Quiet levels of activity may 
be expected for the following two days thereafter. In the IPS 
magnetometer data for 22 Jan, a weak (29nT) impulse 
was observed at 0612UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitude 
locations during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations 
in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be observed on mid 
and high latitude locations on 23 January. Mostly normal 
HF conditions may be expected for most locations on 24 and 
25 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    80    About 15% below predicted monthly values
24 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitude 
locations today. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
may be possible on 23 January due to continued expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. 
Mostly normal conditions may be expected for 24 and 25 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    26600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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