[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 12 issued 2352 UT on 21 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 22 10:52:38 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 142/96

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours. Two 
low C-class flares were observed. One weak shock (0359UT) and 
weak sudden impulse (0503UT) were observed today. Solar wind 
speed showed a sudden incrase from 300 to 340 km/s due to the 
shock. Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 310 and 330 km/s 
during most parts of the UT day. to 300 km/s and the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-6nT during this period. Low levels of 
solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated 
M-class activity may be observed during this period. 

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0359UT 
on 21 Jan. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 21/2020UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 1389 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 23 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23222223
      Darwin               9   22223223
      Townsville           9   23222223
      Learmonth           10   23223223
      Norfolk_Island       8   13222123
      Camden               9   23232222
      Canberra             8   23222222
      Hobart               8   23232122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     7   01243012
      Casey               13   34322233
      Mawson              20   44322254
      Davis               16   23433234
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 
during the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity 
with the possibility of Active periods may be expected for the 
next two days. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may 
be expected for the third day. 

A weak (10nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0503UT on 21 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations 
during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for 24 January with the possibility of minor to mild degradations 
on mid and high latitudes on 22 and 23 January due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
24 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations 
during the last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
may be possible on 22 and 23 January due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. Mostly normal 
conditions may be expected for 24 January. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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