[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 12 issued 2327 UT on 20 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 21 10:27:48 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s to 300 
km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during 
this period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for 
the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed 
during this period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               5   22211212
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            5   22112212
      Norfolk_Island       4   21111121
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             2   11011011
      Hobart               4   22111111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     2   11102110
      Casey               15   35332222
      Mawson              14   44211342
      Davis               16   33332442
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1101 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled, Active periods possible. 
23 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled, Active periods possible. 

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during 
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity 
may be expected for the next three days with the possibility 
of Active periods on 22 and 23 January due to previously 
observed CME activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for 21 January with the possibility of minor 
degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 January and minor 
to mild degradations on 22 and 23 January due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan    85    About 10% below predicted monthly values 
22 Jan    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for most parts of 21 January with the possibility 
of minor degradations at times. Minor to mild degradations in 
HF conditions may be possible on 22 and 23 January due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    36300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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