[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 12 issued 2327 UT on 20 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 21 10:27:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s to 300
km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during
this period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed
during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22112212
Norfolk_Island 4 21111121
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 2 11011011
Hobart 4 22111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 2 11102110
Casey 15 35332222
Mawson 14 44211342
Davis 16 33332442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled, Active periods possible.
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled, Active periods possible.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during
the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity
may be expected for the next three days with the possibility
of Active periods on 22 and 23 January due to previously
observed CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for 21 January with the possibility of minor
degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 January and minor
to mild degradations on 22 and 23 January due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 85 About 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Jan 80 about 15% below predicted monthly values
23 Jan 80 about 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for most parts of 21 January with the possibility
of minor degradations at times. Minor to mild degradations in
HF conditions may be possible on 22 and 23 January due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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