[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 12 issued 2344 UT on 19 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 20 10:44:40 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.2    1612UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1402(N29E15) 
produced a long duration M3.2 flare that started at 1344UT, 
peaked at 1605UT and ended at 1750UT. A CME has been reported 
associated to this flare but due to unavailability of SOHO C2 
data around this time, the CME can not be confirmed at this stage. 
Two C-class flares were also observed today. Solar wind speed 
mostly stayed between 350 and 370 km/s over the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during most parts 
of the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed 
during this period.


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               6   22221212
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            6   21121312
      Norfolk Island       3   11110221
      Camden               3   11110211
      Canberra             2   11110201
      Hobart               5   12111311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000101
      Casey               17   34532223
      Mawson              10   33231223
      Davis               11   23332322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may be 
expected on 20 January with some possibility of activity 
levels rising to Active levels at times on 21 and 22 January 
due to the reported CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for 20 January with the possibility of minor 
to mild degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 and/or 
22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan    80    About 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Jan    80    About 10% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected on 20 January with some possibility of minor 
to mild degradations on mid and high latitudes on 21 and/or 
22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    47500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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