[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 12 issued 2336 UT on 18 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:36:34 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    1912UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1401(N16E27) 
produced two low C-class and one M1.7(1912UT) flares. Region 
1399(S23E17) produced a B9.6 flare at 1230UT. A partial halo 
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325UT coming out of 
the SSE limb. This CME may have its impact on the earth on 
22 January. Solar wind speed varied between 380 and 420 km/s 
showing an overall declining trend over the UT day today. The 
Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during most parts of 
the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed 
during this period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth            5   21121212
      Norfolk Island       2   11100121
      Camden               3   11110112
      Canberra             2   11110101
      Hobart               4   21211111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   10110010
      Casey               15   44432222
      Mawson              15   43232234
      Davis               14   33333332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during 
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for most parts of 19 January and 21 January. Activity levels 
may rise to Unsettled levels late on 19 January and on 20 
January due to an expected effect of a CME that was observed 
on 16 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated periods of minor degradations on high latitudes 
on 19 and/or 20 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements 
on low latitudes and periods of sporadic E on some mid latitude 
locations. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the 
next three days with some possibility of isolated periods of 
minor degradations on high latitudes on 19 and/or 20 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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