[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 12 issued 2336 UT on 18 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:36:34 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1912UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1401(N16E27)
produced two low C-class and one M1.7(1912UT) flares. Region
1399(S23E17) produced a B9.6 flare at 1230UT. A partial halo
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325UT coming out of
the SSE limb. This CME may have its impact on the earth on
22 January. Solar wind speed varied between 380 and 420 km/s
showing an overall declining trend over the UT day today. The
Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during most parts of
the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class activity may be observed
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 5 21121212
Norfolk Island 2 11100121
Camden 3 11110112
Canberra 2 11110101
Hobart 4 21211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 10110010
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 15 43232234
Davis 14 33333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet during
the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for most parts of 19 January and 21 January. Activity levels
may rise to Unsettled levels late on 19 January and on 20
January due to an expected effect of a CME that was observed
on 16 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated periods of minor degradations on high latitudes
on 19 and/or 20 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements
on low latitudes and periods of sporadic E on some mid latitude
locations. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days with some possibility of isolated periods of
minor degradations on high latitudes on 19 and/or 20 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list