[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 12 issued 2316 UT on 17 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 18 10:16:27 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0453UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1401(N18E38) 
produced two low C-class and one M1(0453UT) flares. Solar wind 
speed varied between 400 and 490 km/s showing an overall declining 
trend over the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between 
+/-4nT during most parts of the UT day today. Low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class 
activity may be observed during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32112212
      Darwin               7   32122212
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            8   32123222
      Norfolk Island       4   22101112
      Camden               4   22112111
      Canberra             3   22101111
      Hobart               6   32112212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   21111011
      Casey               18   54432222
      Mawson              17   53232243
      Davis               17   44342233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1112 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     5    Quiet
19 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 
during the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet levels of activity may 
be expected on 18 January. There is some possibility of activity 
to rise to Unsettled levels on 19 and/or 20 January due to the 
possibility of a weak glancing blow from a CME that was observed 
on 16 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated periods of minor degradations on high latitudes 
on 19 and/or 20 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jan    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
      Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements 
on low latitudes. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated 
periods of minor degradations on high latitudes on 19 and/or 
20 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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