[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 12 issued 2316 UT on 17 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 18 10:16:27 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1N 0453UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate today. Region 1401(N18E38)
produced two low C-class and one M1(0453UT) flares. Solar wind
speed varied between 400 and 490 km/s showing an overall declining
trend over the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+/-4nT during most parts of the UT day today. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days. Isolated M-class
activity may be observed during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 32112212
Darwin 7 32122212
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 8 32123222
Norfolk Island 4 22101112
Camden 4 22112111
Canberra 3 22101111
Hobart 6 32112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 21111011
Casey 18 54432222
Mawson 17 53232243
Davis 17 44342233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1112 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
during the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet levels of activity may
be expected on 18 January. There is some possibility of activity
to rise to Unsettled levels on 19 and/or 20 January due to the
possibility of a weak glancing blow from a CME that was observed
on 16 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated periods of minor degradations on high latitudes
on 19 and/or 20 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements
on low latitudes. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated
periods of minor degradations on high latitudes on 19 and/or
20 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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