[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 12 issued 2334 UT on 16 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 17 10:34:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Four C-class flares were
observed during the last 24 hours, the largest being a C6.5 long
duration flare from region 1402(N28E53). This flare that started
at 0236UT, peaked at 0444UT and ended at 0626UT, was associated
with a partial halo CME. A weak glancing blow from this CME is
possible on 19 January. Solar wind speed varied between 350 and
400 km/s until around 0800UT and then showed a gradual increase
to around 520 km/s by 1400UT. At the time of issuing this report
the solar wind speed is around 450 km/s. The Bz component of
IMF varied between +/-8nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3days.
Isolated M-class activity may be observed during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Darwin 11 32233223
Townsville 11 22333232
Learmonth 11 32233232
Norfolk Island 8 22233221
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 10 22233322
Hobart 14 32334332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 20 22146421
Casey 39 56653333
Mawson 25 34334362
Davis 23 34344353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 5 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods during the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may be expected on 17 January,
mostly Quiet on 18 and 19 January with some possibility of activity
levels rising to Unsettled levels on 19 January due to the possibility
of a weak glancing blow from a CME that was observed on 16 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations
during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations
during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements on low latitudes.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 38400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list