[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 12 issued 2334 UT on 16 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 17 10:34:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Four C-class flares were 
observed during the last 24 hours, the largest being a C6.5 long 
duration flare from region 1402(N28E53). This flare that started 
at 0236UT, peaked at 0444UT and ended at 0626UT, was associated 
with a partial halo CME. A weak glancing blow from this CME is 
possible on 19 January. Solar wind speed varied between 350 and 
400 km/s until around 0800UT and then showed a gradual increase 
to around 520 km/s by 1400UT. At the time of issuing this report 
the solar wind speed is around 450 km/s. The Bz component of 
IMF varied between +/-8nT during most parts of the UT day today. 
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3days. 
Isolated M-class activity may be observed during this period.


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22233222
      Darwin              11   32233223
      Townsville          11   22333232
      Learmonth           11   32233232
      Norfolk Island       8   22233221
      Camden              10   22333222
      Canberra            10   22233322
      Hobart              14   32334332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    20   22146421
      Casey               39   56653333
      Mawson              25   34334362
      Davis               23   34344353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0000 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan     5    Quiet
19 Jan     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated Active periods during the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity may be expected on 17 January, 
mostly Quiet on 18 and 19 January with some possibility of activity 
levels rising to Unsettled levels on 19 January due to the possibility 
of a weak glancing blow from a CME that was observed on 16 January.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations 
during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most locations 
during the last 24 hours with some MUF enhancements on low latitudes. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    38400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list