[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 15 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 16 10:29:23 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed today. LASCO 
C3 imagery shows a slow NW-directed CME after 07UT. STEREO-B 
imagery confirms this was a far-side event. Active regions 1401 
and 1402 are now rotating onto the visible NE quadrant and appear 
reasonably large in extent. There is a possibility of M-class 
activity next three days. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed 
until 15UT. After 18UT solar wind speed increased slightly to 
380 km/s. This was accompanied by moderate fluctuations to +/-8nT 
in the IMF Bz component. Further disturbance probable days one 
to two as a narrow coronal hole across the solar Equator moves 
into geoeffective position.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22210223
      Darwin               8   22311223
      Townsville           8   23211223
      Learmonth            7   22211322
      Norfolk Island       3   21100112
      Camden               5   22200213
      Canberra             4   22100113
      Hobart               6   22210123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000012
      Casey                9   24321122
      Mawson              12   34111234
      Davis               11   23222243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     6    Quiet
17 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled periods early and late in the UT day at high latitudes 
only. Possible brief disturbances days one and two due to a narrow 
coronal hole rotating into geoeffective position.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions local day.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Briefly enhanced 40-50% local night at Darwin, 
      25% at Townsville and Brisbane. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced to 30% 04-07, 17-18UT at Perth.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
17 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
18 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions especially Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Significant MUF enhancements observed at times. 
Sporadic-E observed most Aus stations, but not persistent. Expect 
good HF conditions next three days. Short-term variability possible 
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions due to seasonal sporadic-E. Chance 
of minor disturbances Antarctic region days one to two.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    51300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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