[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 14 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 15 10:29:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1318UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: There was a long-duration increase in solar X-ray flux 
during the mid part of the UT day, peaking at the M1.4 level 
at 1315UT. This was in association with a flare sequence on the 
East limb (N14E88) in the area of newly numbered region 1401. 
No associated CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery. Active region 
1398 (N13W19) grew in size and spot complexity over the report 
period. Expect Low solar activity next two to three days with 
the chance of further M-class events as active regions on the 
East limb rotate onto the visible disk. Solar wind speed declined 
steadily from 440 to 360 km/s over the UT day . IMF Bz remained 
mostly neutral.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211011
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           4   12211121
      Learmonth            4   21221002
      Norfolk Island       2   11200001
      Camden               2   11210001
      Canberra             2   11210001
      Hobart               3   11211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   00210000
      Casey               10   33422012
      Mawson               7   23212013
      Davis                7   22322122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2331 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     5    Quiet
16 Jan     6    Quiet
17 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled intervals at high latitudes only 03-06UT. Expect mostly 
Quiet conditions next three days. Possible brief disturbance 
day two or three due to a narrow coronal hole rotating 
into geoeffective position.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced to 45% 00-02UT.
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin variable enhancements to 60% 03-05, 12-15UT.
      Townsville enhanced 20% 04-05, depressed 20% 08-10UT.
      Learmonth enhanced 30% 01-07, depressed 20% 18-21UT.
      Brisbane depressed 20% 00-03, 06-10UT
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
16 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
17 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions especially Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Significant MUF enhancements observed at times. 
Expect good HF conditions next three days. Short-term variability 
possible Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions due to seasonal sporadic-E. 
Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region days two to three.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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