[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 12 issued 2334 UT on 13 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 14 10:34:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: An erupting solar filament was observed across the north 
central meridian late in the UT day Jan 13. There was an associated 
mostly North-directed CME which is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day. Solar 
wind speed peaked early in the UT day at around 550 km/s under 
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. It then declined 
steadily for the remainder of the day to around 430 km/s at the 
time of report issue. The Bz component of the IMF showed moderate 
fluctuations to +/-10nT early in the day then settled to mostly 
neutral.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32321111
      Darwin               8   32321212
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth            8   32321212
      Norfolk Island       5   22310111
      Camden               7   32321111
      Canberra             5   22320111
      Hobart               8   33321111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   22330001
      Casey               26   56532122
      Mawson              16   44421214
      Davis               15   34433222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2001 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     5    Quiet
15 Jan     5    Quiet
16 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were disturbed for the first few 
hours of the UT day following onset of the anticipated coronal 
hole wind stream. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid 
latitudes was Quiet to Unsettled 00-09UT, then tending to mostly 
Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Unsettled to Active 
00-09UT, tending later to Quiet to Unsettled. The coronal hole 
wind stream appears now to be in decline. Expect mostly Quiet 
conditions next three days. Possible brief disturbance day two 
or three due to another narrow coronal hole now at central solar 
meridian.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Possible disturbed conditions day one at high latitudes 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jan   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Variable minor enhancements/depressions.
      Enhanced to 40% local day today. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Isolated periods of moderate disturbance. 

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
15 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
16 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%

COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Daytime enhancements extending to S Aus regions. Expect 
good HF conditions next three days. Short-term variability possible 
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions due to seasonal sporadic-E. Chance 
of minor disturbances Antarctic region day one.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    61600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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