[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 12 issued 2333 UT on 12 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 10:33:40 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: There was a long-duration increase in solar X-ray flux 
level over the mid part of the UT day commencing at about 09UT. 
The source is probably a large flare/CME which occurred behind 
the east limb. STEREO A imagery shows a mostly N-directed far-side 
CME after 09UT. STEREO B imagery shows a semi-halo CME with some 
ejecta in the ecliptic plane. The event is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind parameters were stable until 19UT after which solar 
wind speed increased from 400 to 550 km/s and IMF Bz showed moderate 
fluctuations to +/-10nT. This probably marks onset of the anticipated 
mild coronal hole wind stream, which is expected to persist for 
about one day. Loop prominence activity was observed on the NE 
limb indicating an approaching active region.



Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1387 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22221233
      Darwin               8   22222232
      Townsville           9   22222233
      Learmonth            9   22232232
      Norfolk Island       5   12111132
      Camden               8   22211233
      Canberra             7   21211133
      Hobart               8   22221133    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   11121022
      Casey               14   33432233
      Mawson              14   33224224
      Davis               13   23333332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1210 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes becoming Unsettled 18-24UT due to onset of the anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. Conditions were mostly Unsettled at 
high latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions day one with 
the chance of isolated Active intervals mainly at high latitudes. 
Conditions should decline on day two becoming generally Quiet 
day three.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Possible disturbed conditions days one and two at high 
latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions to 40% observed 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Mild variability extending to S Aus 
regions. Conditions should be near predicted monthly values equatorial/Aus/NZ 
regions with the chance of moderate locally variable enhancements/depressions. 
Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region next two to three 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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