[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 12 issued 2328 UT on 11 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 12 10:28:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Active region 1393 (N17W82) produced a C3 level flare 
at 0446UT. There was no associated radio sweep or CME observed. 
Solar wind speed increased slightly during the second half of 
the UT day to around 480 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF showed 
minor fluctuations about neutral, tending mildly positive during 
the second half of the UT day. A small S. hemisphere coronal 
hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position day one 
or two.



Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1387 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211212
      Darwin               6   22221222
      Townsville           7   23221222
      Learmonth            7   22221322
      Norfolk Island       4   32110111
      Camden               5   13210212
      Canberra             4   12210212
      Hobart               6   23211212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   22110111
      Casey               25   36542322
      Mawson              22   54311254
      Davis               17   34332225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0102 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     6    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with Unsettled intervals 03-06UT. Conditions were mostly 
Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one. 
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into 
geoeffective position day one or two bringing briefly Unsettled 
conditions.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced 20-30% local day Perth and Learmonth
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20-30%
13 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions Equatorial/Aus/NZ 
regions. Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    72900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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