[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 12 issued 2325 UT on 10 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 11 10:25:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
wind speed remained steady at around 440 km/s and the Bz component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated +/-5nT throughout
the UT day with no sustained periods of negative bias. A small
S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position by day two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11223212
Darwin 9 22223223
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 8 21223223
Norfolk Island 4 11122112
Camden 7 11133212
Canberra 5 11123112
Hobart 7 11233112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 14 11155111
Casey 25 45544232
Mawson 14 33233342
Davis 18 33443342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2221 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with Unsettled intervals 09-15UT. Conditions were mostly
Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one.
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into
geoeffective position by day two bringing briefly Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced to 60% 04-16UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times especially Central-S.
Aus regions. Expect similar conditions over the forecast period;
communications may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 95000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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