[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 12 issued 2325 UT on 10 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 11 10:25:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
wind speed remained steady at around 440 km/s and the Bz component 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated +/-5nT throughout 
the UT day with no sustained periods of negative bias. A small 
S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective 
position by day two.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11223212
      Darwin               9   22223223
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth            8   21223223
      Norfolk Island       4   11122112
      Camden               7   11133212
      Canberra             5   11123112
      Hobart               7   11233112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    14   11155111
      Casey               25   45544232
      Mawson              14   33233342
      Davis               18   33443342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2221 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with Unsettled intervals 09-15UT. Conditions were mostly 
Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one. 
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into 
geoeffective position by day two bringing briefly Unsettled conditions.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin enhanced to 60% 04-16UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times especially Central-S. 
Aus regions. Expect similar conditions over the forecast period; 
communications may be degraded or disrupted.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    95000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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