[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 12 issued 2326 UT on 09 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 10 10:26:59 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
wind speed remained steady at around 440 km/s and the Bz component 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated +/-5nT throughout 
the UT day with no sustained periods of negative bias. A small 
S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective 
position by day three.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221212
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            9   32232312
      Norfolk Island       5   -2221121
      Camden               8   23321212
      Canberra             6   22221212
      Hobart               8   23321212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   22111211
      Casey               25   45542423
      Mawson              21   44433334
      Davis               24   43543424

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1110 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     5    Quiet
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at some stations. Conditions 
were mostly Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions 
days one and two. A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected 
to rotate into geoeffective position by day three bringing briefly 
Unsettled conditions.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 20% 00-02UT. Depressed 15% 03-05UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Sporadic-E observed after local dawn Brisbane, 
      Sydney, Canberra. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
11 Jan    95    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    60800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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