[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 08 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 9 10:29:23 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 136/90

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Seven C flares with the main contributor, region 1393 
(N16W45), which continues to develop. The largest flare was a 
C4.9 at 0227 UT, originating from the far side. New region 1395 
(N22E59), appears to be a unipolar spot. There is the chance 
of moderate flare activity. LASCO and STEREO images show a CME 
at 0212 UT which occurred on the far side. This CME is not
expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters
were undisturbed with wind speed 400 to 460 km/s. Expect mostly
undisturbed solar wind conditions over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet. 

Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22121222
      Norfolk_Island       4   12210122
      Camden               5   12211222
      Canberra             4   12210121
      Hobart               5   22211121
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     2   12100010
      Casey               25   36533232
      Mawson              15   34322243
      Davis               17   33433243
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2101 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan     5    Quiet 
10 Jan     5    Quiet 
11 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible unsettled periods 9 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Jan   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 50% 04-17
      UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 11-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
      to 25%. Depressions to 25% at some Brisbane, Learmonth and
      Norfolk Is. 19-22 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
10 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
11 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    77300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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