[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 07 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 8 10:29:14 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A C2.6 flare from 1392 (N20W42) at 0009 UT and other 
lower C-class events over the period from region 1388 (S26W72) 
and 1389 (S21W57). Region 1393 (N17W30) grew rapidly. Chance 
of moderate activity. A CME was observed in STEREO and LASCO 
images from behind the north-east limb at 06/2125 UT; it is not 
expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters 
were mostly undisturbed with wind speed between 390 to 460 km/s. 
Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed on 8 Jan due 
to CME effects. Expect mostly undisturbed conditions on 9 and 
10 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212212
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Norfolk_Island       5   31112111
      Camden               7   22213212
      Canberra             6   22212212
      Hobart               7   22213212
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     6   11222311
      Casey               25   45632223
      Mawson              17   43322235
      Davis               23   434-----
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1101 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Jan     5    Quiet 
10 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 8 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jan    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
      13-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25%
      02-04 UT and to 35% 17-18 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
09 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
10 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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