[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 07 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 8 10:29:14 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: A C2.6 flare from 1392 (N20W42) at 0009 UT and other
lower C-class events over the period from region 1388 (S26W72)
and 1389 (S21W57). Region 1393 (N17W30) grew rapidly. Chance
of moderate activity. A CME was observed in STEREO and LASCO
images from behind the north-east limb at 06/2125 UT; it is not
expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters
were mostly undisturbed with wind speed between 390 to 460 km/s.
Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed on 8 Jan due
to CME effects. Expect mostly undisturbed conditions on 9 and
10 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22212212
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Norfolk_Island 5 31112111
Camden 7 22213212
Canberra 6 22212212
Hobart 7 22213212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 6 11222311
Casey 25 45632223
Mawson 17 43322235
Davis 23 434-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
10 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 8 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
13-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25%
02-04 UT and to 35% 17-18 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
09 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
10 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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