[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 7 10:29:20 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 136/90

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: A C1.4 flare from region 1389 (S23W41) at 0608 UT and 
a C2.2 from 1392 (N19W32) at 1125 UT. ACE data show the solar 
wind becoming slightly disturbed with the arrival of the coronal 
hole wind stream. The north-south IMF component ranging +8/-7 
nT and wind speed increasing to 460 km/s. Solar wind parameters 
should be slightly disturbed 7 to 8 Jan due to the continued 
effects of the coronal hole. However, there may be increased 
disturbance during this period due to the 3 Jan CME. By 9 Jan, 
wind parameters should be returning to normal. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22221123
      Darwin               7   22221223
      Townsville           9   22222233
      Learmonth            6   22221222
      Norfolk_Island       5   21221122
      Camden               6   12221123
      Canberra             6   12221123
      Hobart               6   22221122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     3   11120112
      Casey               29   46543233
      Mawson              22   23332364
      Davis               20   34443234
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1010 3121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 7-8 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Jan   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
      13-18 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40% at
      Darwin 07-12 UT and to 30% at Townsville 06-10 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
08 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
09 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    43900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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