[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 6 10:31:21 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: A C1.9 flare from region 1390 (N10W71) at 0722 UT and 
and C2.1 from growing region 1392 (N21W18) at 1238 UT. The latter 
flare was probably associated with a CME at 1209 UT, observed 
in STEREO and SDO images. This CME appears to have a weak, Earth 
directed component. Regions 1391 (N13E43) and 1392 appear most 
likely to flare. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed 
with the north-south IMF component ranging +5/-7 nT. Solar wind 
parameters may be slightly disturbed 6 Jan. Expect disturbed 
conditions 7-8 Jan due to coronal hole and CME effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12123121
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Norfolk_Island       5   12123110
      Camden               6   12123121
      Canberra             5   12123120
      Hobart               6   12223121
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     9   12125110
      Casey               15   24532222
      Mawson              12   42123233
      Davis               12   23233233
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   2000 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Jan    12    Unsettled to active 
08 Jan    10    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 6-8 Jan and minor storm 
levels at higher latitudes 7-8 Jan 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jan   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30% at
      Darwin 17-18 UT. Enhancements at Townsville to 50% 09-19 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
07 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 
08 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    23300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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