[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 12 issued 2335 UT on 04 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 5 10:35:32 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 136/90

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Two C1 flares over the reporting period from regions 
1386 (S17W87) and 1392 (N20W04). ACE data showed solar wind parameters
were undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to become disturbed 
late 5 or 6 Jan due to coronal hole effects. Expect disturbed 
conditions to carry over to 7 Jan if the CME from 3 Jan arrives. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11012111
      Darwin               5   21122112
      Townsville           5   22112122
      Learmonth            4   12012112
      Norfolk_Island       2   21001021
      Camden               2   11002011
      Canberra             1   11001011
      Hobart               2   11001111
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     0   00000010
      Casey                9   34212122
      Mawson               6   41111112
      Davis                8   33222122
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3422 1110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 5 to 7 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jan   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
      00-04, 15-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      04-08 UT and depressions to 25% 20-21 UT at Darwin and
      enhancements to 45% 02-09 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
      to 25%.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
06 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
07 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    83700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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