[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 03 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 4 10:29:22 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 135/89

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: A CME was observed in the available STEREO images beginning 
around 1055 UT and is likely to impact Earth perhaps as early 
as 6 Jan. It may be associated with activity in the north-east 
quadrant observed in SDO images. ACE data showed the solar wind 
IMF Bz component slightly disturbed early in the reporting period 
(+5/-10 nT) and the speed reaching ~470 km/s. Solar wind parameters 
are now undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to become disturbed 
late 5 or 6 Jan due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Mostly quiet to
   unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32222211
      Darwin               7   32212212
      Townsville           8   33222221
      Learmonth            8   42222211
      Norfolk_Island       5   32111112
      Camden               6   32221111
      Canberra             5   32121110
      Hobart               8   33222211
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island    10   24233300
      Casey               17   45422222
      Mawson              24   46333333
      Davis               20   34543232
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0000 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     6    Quiet 
05 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on 5 and 6 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jan   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional enhancements to
      30%, 15-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35% at
      Darwin 04-08 and 16-18 UT and at Townsville 03-13 and
      16-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      mostly 00-14 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions and
      enhancements to 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
05 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
06 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, 
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications 
may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    34600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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