[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 12 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 3 10:30:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A few low level, C-class flares, mostly from region
1389 (S22E06). Two CMEs were observed in STEREO images with one
a far side event and the other occurring near the west limb and
possibly associated with a C2.4 flare at 1524 UT. Neither are
expected to be geo-effective. SDO images show a filament eruption
near N30W10 around 0612 UT. Culgoora Solar Observatory reports
new region 1391 (N13E81) as an Hhx group, although there may
be trailing spots not as yet visible. ACE data show the solar
wind undisturbed until about 1330 UT. The Bz IMF component has
since ranged between +/-9 nT with the speed remaining below 400
km/s. Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed on 3-4
Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21112132
Darwin 7 22122232
Townsville 7 22212232
Learmonth 8 22123232
Norfolk_Island 6 21112132
Camden 5 11112132
Canberra 5 10112132
Hobart 4 11112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 1 00001021
Casey 12 34321133
Mawson 5 21112122
Davis 9 22322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
04 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on 3 and 4 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
00-01 and 04 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Darwin 00-15 UT. No data
thereafter. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
mostly after 13 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 74
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
04 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
05 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at low and mid
latitudes - communications may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 55700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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