[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 12 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 3 10:30:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 135/89

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: A few low level, C-class flares, mostly from region 
1389 (S22E06). Two CMEs were observed in STEREO images with one 
a far side event and the other occurring near the west limb and 
possibly associated with a C2.4 flare at 1524 UT. Neither are 
expected to be geo-effective. SDO images show a filament eruption 
near N30W10 around 0612 UT. Culgoora Solar Observatory reports 
new region 1391 (N13E81) as an Hhx group, although there may 
be trailing spots not as yet visible. ACE data show the solar 
wind undisturbed until about 1330 UT. The Bz IMF component has 
since ranged between +/-9 nT with the speed remaining below 400 
km/s. Solar wind parameters may be slightly disturbed on 3-4 
Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21112132
      Darwin               7   22122232
      Townsville           7   22212232
      Learmonth            8   22123232
      Norfolk_Island       6   21112132
      Camden               5   11112132
      Canberra             5   10112132
      Hobart               4   11112122
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
      Macquarie_Island     1   00001021
      Casey               12   34321133
      Mawson               5   21112122
      Davis                9   22322223
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Jan     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on 3 and 4 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jan   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
      00-01 and 04 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Darwin 00-15 UT. No data
      thereafter. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      mostly after 13 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  74

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan   115    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
04 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 
05 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at low and mid 
latitudes - communications may be degraded or disrupted. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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