[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 12 issued 2351 UT on 01 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:51:13 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Background X-ray flux remained mostly at very low levels 
over the previous day with a single C-class event from region 
1389(S22E17) at 0734UT. This region, the most active on the disc 
over the last few days, decayed somewhat in area and complexity 
over the past 24 hours. All regions currently on disc are stable. 
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels for the 
next 3 days. Possibility of an isolated M-class flare from region 
1389 over the forecast period. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed 
over the reporting period. Some minor effects from a southern 
polar coronal hole may slightly disturb these parameters over 
the forecast period.


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22222212
      Norfolk Island       2   11110101
      Camden               4   21211111
      Canberra             3   21111111
      Hobart               5   22222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   11002101
      Casey               15   45322222
      Mawson              12   33222333
      Davis               18   33333352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1112 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     5    Quiet
03 Jan     5    Quiet
04 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours 
for the Australian region. Conditions are expected to be mostly 
Quiet over the next 3 days with a chance of Unsettled periods 
due to some minor effects from a southern polar coronal hole.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  74

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Jan   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Jan   120    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slight depressions were observed at times during the 
past 24 hours. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions 
were observed at times, otherwise propagation conditions mostly 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values. There is a small chance of SWFs 
over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    27100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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