[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 11 issued 2349 UT on 31 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 1 10:49:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    1315UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1626UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Two M-class flares, all originating from region 1389 
(S23E31), M2.4 at 1315UT and M1.5 at 1626UT. This region is likely 
to produce more M-flares over the next few days. Region 1386 
contributed a C1.2 flare at 1731UT. The remaining regions on 
the disc were stable. Solar wind speed remained low, fluctuating 
between 340-380Km/s. The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-2nT 
range with a more disturbed period up to +/-5nT between 06-16UT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain around current levels 
for the next 3 days, however some minor effects from a southern 
polar coronal hole may slightly disturb the solar wind parameters.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21231111
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           7   22231221
      Learmonth            7   22231122
      Norfolk Island       3   21220110
      Camden               6   11331112
      Canberra             4   11230111
      Hobart               6   21330111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   11220000
      Casey               15   34442222
      Mawson              15   33222235
      Davis               18   43433243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1110 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     7    Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods.
02 Jan     7    Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods.
03 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The Australian regional geomagnetic field remained at 
Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours. Conditions 
are expected to be mostly Quiet over the next 3 days with a chance 
of Unsettled periods due to some minor effects from a southern 
polar coronal hole.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Briefly depressed MUFs observed at times in most regions. 
Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Similar conditions may be expected over the next 3 days. 
With solar activity increasing, there is a small chance of Short 
Wave Fade-outs (SWFs) over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:    51200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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