[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 11 issued 2349 UT on 31 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 1 10:49:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1315UT possible lower European
M1.5 1626UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Two M-class flares, all originating from region 1389
(S23E31), M2.4 at 1315UT and M1.5 at 1626UT. This region is likely
to produce more M-flares over the next few days. Region 1386
contributed a C1.2 flare at 1731UT. The remaining regions on
the disc were stable. Solar wind speed remained low, fluctuating
between 340-380Km/s. The IMF Bz remained mostly in the +/-2nT
range with a more disturbed period up to +/-5nT between 06-16UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain around current levels
for the next 3 days, however some minor effects from a southern
polar coronal hole may slightly disturb the solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21231111
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 7 22231221
Learmonth 7 22231122
Norfolk Island 3 21220110
Camden 6 11331112
Canberra 4 11230111
Hobart 6 21330111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11220000
Casey 15 34442222
Mawson 15 33222235
Davis 18 43433243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1110 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 7 Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods.
02 Jan 7 Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods.
03 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian regional geomagnetic field remained at
Quiet to Unsettled levels over the last 24 hours. Conditions
are expected to be mostly Quiet over the next 3 days with a chance
of Unsettled periods due to some minor effects from a southern
polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Briefly depressed MUFs observed at times in most regions.
Otherwise propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly
values. Similar conditions may be expected over the next 3 days.
With solar activity increasing, there is a small chance of Short
Wave Fade-outs (SWFs) over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 51200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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