[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 12 issued 2351 UT on 30 Jan 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 31 10:51:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: The CME observed in association with the X1-flare of 
27 January was primarily directed towards the west but the edge 
impacted the geomagnetic field at ~16UT as a moderate shock. 
However the Bz was mostly northward and the change in solar wind 
speed was not very large(<100km/s), so the effect on the geomagnetic 
field was somewhat muted. AR1410 (19N, 37E) is the dominant sunspot 
group but only produced single B and C class X-rays flares on 
30 Jan. The next largest region 1408 (8N, 37W) is smaller and 
less complex but growing. High energy (10 MeV) proton fluxes 
at geostationary orbit associated with the 27 January X flare 
have steadily descended in the last 24 hours and are close to 
returning below event levels at the start of 31 Jan.

A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1539UT on 
30 Jan.

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
30/1515UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11111333
      Darwin               7   22111323
      Townsville           8   22111333
      Learmonth            7   11111333
      Norfolk Island       5   10100332
      Camden               7   11111333
      Canberra             4   01100223
      Hobart               6   11111233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   00000122
      Casey               15   34332333
      Mawson              19   11211464
      Davis               17   23322354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb     6    Quiet
02 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is increasing to Unsettled levels 
at the start of 31 January UT in Australian region due to the 
glancing impact of a CME at ~16UT. As the Bz was mainly northwards 
and the increase in solar wind speed modest, the impact on the 
geomagnetic has been somewhat muted.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to good over 30 Jan 
and should continue into 31 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions at the 
Unsettled level in the first half of the day from a CME glancing 
blow will disturb the polar ionosphere but effects at mid and 
low latitudes are expected to be minimal.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan    75    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values but enhanced 
near equatorial latitudes. MUFs are expected to be possibly slightly 
suppressed to near monthly averages on 31 Jan due to Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions and then remain at that level for the 
following 2 days due to the lower number of sunspots and ionising 
EUV. Antarctic region MUFs may be more significantly suppressed 
than mid latitudes on 31 Jan due to the geomagnetic disturbance 
which will reach Active levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    54200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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