[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 12 issued 2351 UT on 30 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 31 10:51:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The CME observed in association with the X1-flare of
27 January was primarily directed towards the west but the edge
impacted the geomagnetic field at ~16UT as a moderate shock.
However the Bz was mostly northward and the change in solar wind
speed was not very large(<100km/s), so the effect on the geomagnetic
field was somewhat muted. AR1410 (19N, 37E) is the dominant sunspot
group but only produced single B and C class X-rays flares on
30 Jan. The next largest region 1408 (8N, 37W) is smaller and
less complex but growing. High energy (10 MeV) proton fluxes
at geostationary orbit associated with the 27 January X flare
have steadily descended in the last 24 hours and are close to
returning below event levels at the start of 31 Jan.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1539UT on
30 Jan.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
30/1515UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 11111333
Darwin 7 22111323
Townsville 8 22111333
Learmonth 7 11111333
Norfolk Island 5 10100332
Camden 7 11111333
Canberra 4 01100223
Hobart 6 11111233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 00000122
Casey 15 34332333
Mawson 19 11211464
Davis 17 23322354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 6 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is increasing to Unsettled levels
at the start of 31 January UT in Australian region due to the
glancing impact of a CME at ~16UT. As the Bz was mainly northwards
and the increase in solar wind speed modest, the impact on the
geomagnetic has been somewhat muted.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to good over 30 Jan
and should continue into 31 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions at the
Unsettled level in the first half of the day from a CME glancing
blow will disturb the polar ionosphere but effects at mid and
low latitudes are expected to be minimal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values but enhanced
near equatorial latitudes. MUFs are expected to be possibly slightly
suppressed to near monthly averages on 31 Jan due to Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions and then remain at that level for the
following 2 days due to the lower number of sunspots and ionising
EUV. Antarctic region MUFs may be more significantly suppressed
than mid latitudes on 31 Jan due to the geomagnetic disturbance
which will reach Active levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list