[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 12 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 28 10:30:39 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 106/55

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             29 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: After the mild shock in the solar wind at 26/2056 UT, 
the ACE Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-10 nT with 
a sustained southward period 1300-1830 UT. Solar wind speed increased 
over the reporting period to ~510 km/s. Two CMEs were observed 
in LASCO C2 and STEREO images. An eastward CME observed ~0920 
UT may have an Earth-directed component. Solar wind parameters 
should begin to settle over 28 Feb. Region 1426 (N11E01) is considered
the most likely region to flare. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
until 12 UT. Active to minor storm levels 12-21 UT, then settling to
quiet conditions. 

Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   32224452
      Darwin              15   32224442
      Townsville          15   32224442
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island      12   32123342
      Camden              18   32224452
      Canberra            16   22124452
      Hobart              20   32224552
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
      Macquarie_Island    35   32125753
      Casey               24   44434352
      Mawson              53   44324862
      Davis               21   44333352
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : 
      Darwin              74   (Active)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2222 1012     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Mar     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Field reached major storm levels at southern high latitudes. 
Isolated active levels possible 28 and 29 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Feb    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      11-14, 18 and 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      08-14, 17 and 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      25% 19-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions at
      some stations to 20% 20-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere due to polar cap absorption (proton
      enhancement). Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
29 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 27 February 
and is current for interval 28 February only. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    83000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list