[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 12 issued 2335 UT on 26 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 27 10:35:52 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 29 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 1421(N14W48)
produced two low C-class flares (a C11.3 at 1125 UT and a
C2.3 at 2141 UT). Two non-earthward directed CMEs were also
observed. Solar wind speed stayed around 420 km/s until 2056
UT when a moderate shock suddenly raised it to nearly 500 km/s.
This shock seems to be the arrival of previously anticipated
CME that was observed early on 24 February. The effect of
this CME may keep the solar wind stream strengthened through
the UT day 27 February. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today. Very low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days with
some possibility of isolated C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22222113
Darwin 7 22222113
Townsville 7 22222123
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 4 21122012
Camden 6 21222113
Canberra 5 21122013
Hobart 7 22222123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 12223012
Casey 16 35422223
Mawson 17 33314244
Davis 14 33334223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 0012 3021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 5 Quiet
29 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed today. Slight enhancement in geomagnetic activity may
be possible on 27 February due to the arrival of a CME. Quiet
to unsettled conditions with some possibility of active periods
may be expected for 27 February. Mostly quiet conditions may
be expected on 28 and 29 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of minor to
mild degradations on high latitudes on 27 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on
most locations with isolated periods of minor enhancements
at low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of minor to mild
degradations on high latitudes on 27 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 94100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list