[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 12 issued 2347 UT on 25 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 26 10:47:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A CME was observed
in LASCO imagery at 24/1948 UT. This CME came from a filament
eruption at 24 /1911UT. This CME does not seem to be earthward
directed. However there is a small possibility for a minor
glancing blow to arrive on 27 February from the CME that was
observed early on 24 February. Solar wind speed varied between
380 and 460 km/s during the UT day today and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this period. Very low
levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21232122
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 5 21122122
Camden 7 11233122
Canberra 5 11132121
Hobart 6 11232121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 10 01353101
Casey 14 34422232
Mawson 17 23333344
Davis 15 23344232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1211 1210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
28 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
with isolated active periods today. Mostly quiet conditions
may be expected on 26 February with some possibility of
unsettled conditions on 27 and 28 February due to a possible
glancing blow from a CME that was observed early on 24 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days with a small possibility of minor
degradations on high latitudes on 27 and 28 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%
27 Feb 80 near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 80 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today with isolated periods of minor enhancements
at low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days with a small possibility of minor
degradations on high latitudes on 27 and 28 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 96400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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