[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 28 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 29 10:29:45 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Feb             01 Mar             02 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Region 11423 (N18E03) appears stable while region 11426 
(N10W17) has decayed. The ACE Bz IMF component was mostly northward 
to 12 nT turning south to about -12 nT from ~0510-0700 UT. Wind 
speed decreased from 500 to 450 km/s. Solar wind parameters may 
become mildly disturbed late 1 Mar or 2 Mar due to coronal hole 
effects. The ~0920 UT eastward CME mentioned in 27 Feb report 
is not expected to be geo-effective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Mostly quiet. One
period of unsettled to active conditions 06-09 
UT. 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12422212
      Darwin              10   22332322
      Townsville          11   22432322
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk_Island       6   12321212
      Camden               8   12422212
      Canberra             6   12321202
      Hobart               8   12421212
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie_Island     6   11430101
      Casey               21   34------
      Mawson              26   33632335
      Davis               26   33642344
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Darwin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   4312 4352     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Feb     7    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Mar     6    Quiet 
02 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet to active at southern high latitudes with some 
major storm levels 06-09 UT. Increase in activity 06-09 UT in 
Australian and Antarctic regions corresponds with the southward 
IMF ~0510-0700 UT. Forecast unsettled conditions on 2 Mar due 
to coronal hole. Effects should be brief due to small longitudinal 
extent of the hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Feb    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
      to 25% 04-13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 00-02,
      06-09 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Eastern Australia region mostly depressed to 25% improving after
      local dawn. Western Australia region near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere possibly due to absorption. Depressed mostly
      15-30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Feb    80    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
		20% possible at times. 
01 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 466 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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