[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 12 issued 2339 UT on 22 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 23 10:39:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Today's largest
flare was a B5 (1937UT) from region 1422 (N15W38). A weak sudden
impulse or 12 nT was observed in IPS MAG data at 0217 UT. Solar
wind speed stayed between 380 and 450 km/s until around 0800 UT
today, then rose to 550 km/s by 1100 UT and then stayed between
500 and 550 km/s for the rest of the day. This enhancement in
the solar wind speed seems to be due to an earlier than anticipated
effect of a coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated
between +/-10 nT by around 0900 UT today and then stayed slightly
positive (upto 5 nT) for most parts of the remaining day. Very
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 32323122
Darwin 10 32323222
Townsville 11 32432222
Learmonth 12 423231--
Norfolk Island 8 32322122
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 22323111
Hobart 10 22433111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 21343110
Casey 24 43652222
Mawson 19 45532211
Davis 27 44563222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3212 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
with some Active periods on high latitudes were observed today.
Nearly similar geomagnetic activity may be expected for the
next 2 days due to the effect of a coronal hole. Activity
is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels on the third day.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 22 Feb, a weak (12nT) impulse
was observed at 0217UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depression in MUFs were observed
on many locations today. MUFs depressions up to nearly 20%
were observed on many locations today. Periods of near predicted
monthly values and enhancements by about 15% were also observed,
mainly on low and mid latitudes. Mostly normal to fair HF
conditions on low and mid latitudes and fair to poor on high
latitudes may be expected on 23 and 24 February due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. HF conditions
may return to mostly normal levels on 25 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
24 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
25 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs depressions up to nearly 20% were observed on many
locations today. Periods of near predicted monthly values and
enhancements by about 15% were also observed, mainly on low and
mid latitudes. Mostly normal to fair HF conditions on low and
mid latitudes and fair to poor on high latitudes may be expected
on 23 and 24 February due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. HF conditions may return to mostly normal
levels on 25 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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