[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 12 issued 2340 UT on 23 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 24 10:41:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Two non-earthward 
directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind showed a gradual decline 
from 500 and 400 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal 
hole effect started to weaken. The Bz component of IMF varied 
between +/-4 nT for most parts of the UT day. The effect of 
the currently geoeffective coronal hole is expected to further 
weaken over the next 24 hours. Very Low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11121112
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           7   22221223
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk Island       3   11110013
      Camden               3   11121012
      Canberra             2   11120011
      Hobart               3   11121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   00130001
      Casey               10   24421112
      Mawson               9   22211105
      Davis               12   23332224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3322 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     6    Quiet
25 Feb     5    Quiet
26 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Feb    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on 
most locations. Nearly  similar  conditions may be expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   235000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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