[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 12 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 16 10:30:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last day. All sunspot 
regions on the visible Sun are stable. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 380-400 km/s. The IMF Bz component has been predominantly 
southward by up tp 9nT for most of the last day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Low for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Unsettled with isolated Active
periods

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23333333
      Darwin              14   33323333
      Townsville          14   23333333
      Learmonth           13   23323333
      Norfolk Island      12   14323232
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            13   13333333
      Hobart              17   23433433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    42   25555653
      Casey               12   33322233
      Mawson              61   48333565
      Davis               18   34333334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2222 1333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb     5    Quiet
18 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Unsettled across Australia 
over the past day, with isolated Active periods observed in some 
locations. Antarctic stations have recorded some Minor Storm 
levels of activity, being otherwise Unsettled to Active. Conditions 
are expected to relax to Unsettled over the next day before becoming 
Quiet on the 17th. From the 18th, Unsettled conditions may return 
due to an anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by up to 20% at times.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb    50    Near predicted values with depressions for southern 
                regions of around 20%
17 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the last 24 hours with daytime depressions in southern Australian 
stations of up to 20%. Significant blanketing E is currently 
being observed on east coast stations. Conditions for southern 
regions are expected to worsen over the next 24 hours due to 
sustained low level geomagnetic activity with depressions of 
at most 30% expected. Central and northern regions are expected 
to remain around predicted monthly values, with the possibility 
of mildly depressed periods for central regions. IPS HF warning 
12/09 has been issued to alert users of these conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    62000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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