[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 12 issued 2337 UT on 14 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 15 10:37:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last day. All sunspot 
regions on the visible Sun are stable. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 340-420 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between 
+/-5nT prior to 12 UT. After this time the Bz remained largely 
southward, reaching around -7nT. Solar activity is expected to 
remain Low for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22322223
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           9   22322223
      Learmonth           11   33222323
      Norfolk Island       6   22211222
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             8   22321223
      Hobart              10   22322323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   12323532
      Casey               18   34442224
      Mawson              26   54433335
      Davis               14   33433223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1132 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb     5    Quiet
17 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across 
Australia with Unsettled to Active levels in Antarctica. Unsettled 
conditions are expected to persist into at least the first half 
of Feb 15th(UT), before relaxing to Quiet levels for the remainder 
of the forecast period.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    60    About 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the last 24 hours. Some depressed conditions are expected over 
the next day due to some mild geomagnetic activity. MUF are expected 
to be depressed by up to 20% for southern and central regions 
(south of and including Brisbane). IPS HF warning 12/07 has been 
issued to alert users of these conditions. Conditions in northern 
Australia are expected to remain around predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list