[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 13 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 14 10:31:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no flares of significance. Sunspot regions on the visible disc 
are stable or declining. The solar wind speed ranged between 
350-450km/s with signatures of a weak coronal hole high speed 
stream arriving around 12UT. The IMF Bz component ranged between 
+/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be a Low levels at most 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Unsettled to Active

Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22323432
      Darwin              13   23323432
      Townsville          12   22323432
      Learmonth           16   23323532
      Norfolk Island       8   22222322
      Camden               5   21------
      Canberra            10   22323322
      Hobart              10   13323321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    16   02235521
      Casey               17   34532322
      Mawson              14   22333441
      Davis               15   23443322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1200 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled for much of the 
day over the Australian region due to a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. A weak sudden impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer 
network at 0509UT. An isolated Active period occurred around 
15-19UT. Antarctic regions reached Minor Storm levels of activity 
at times. Conditions are expected to remain Unsettled with further 
active periods expected over the next day due to the tail end 
of the coronal hole effects coupled with an expected glancing 
blow from a CME observed on the 10th of February. Conditions 
may remain Unsettled into the 15th of Feb before returning to 
Quiet levels on the 16th.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
high latitudes for the next 2 days. Mid latitudes may also experience 
some mild disruption.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
15 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
16 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the last 24 hours, with significant enhancements seen at Cocos 
Island. Some depressed conditions are expected over the next 
2 days due to geomagnetic activity. This is expected to depress 
the MUFs by up to 20% for southern regions. Central regions may 
experience some depressions and northern Australia should be 
around predicted monthly values. Current conditions do not yet 
show significant depressions. The situation will be monitored 
and an IPS HF warning issued if MUFs become significantly degraded 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    49700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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